Posted on: May 13, 2025 / Last updated: May 13, 2025

Logistics Shifts Under 90-Day Tariff Relief｜Is the US-China Trade War on Pause?

Hello, this is Iino.

According to the Nikkei on May 13, 2025, a significant development was reported: the US and China have agreed to a 90-day pause in their tariff war.

In this article, I’ll break down what this means for current trade relations and future prospects—from a logistics perspective.

CONTENTS

Temporary Tariff Relief in the US-China Trade War

The US and China have been locked in a tariff battle for years. However, both countries have now agreed to mutually ease tariffs for a limited 90-day period.

Specifically, the US will reduce 115% of the 145% tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, effectively lowering them to 30%. On the other hand, China will reduce tariffs on American imports to 10%.

The Background: Overproduction and US Deficit Concerns

Behind this agreement are several concerns from the American side:

・China is subsidizing state-led overproduction of steel and solar panels
・As a result, the US trade deficit is widening and domestic jobs are being lost

These structural issues have been pointed out for over a decade by OECD countries.

Therefore, it’s unlikely that such deep-rooted problems can be resolved with just a short 90-day measure.

What to Expect: “Rush Imports” and Inventory Adjustments

How will this temporary relief affect logistics and international trade?

1. Surge in Last-Minute Orders

With lower tariffs, US retailers and manufacturers may rush to source Chinese products in bulk.

In particular, items like bedding and daily goods—which are hard to switch manufacturing lines for—may see increased inventory accumulation.

This could lead to rising ocean freight rates and limited container space, straining logistics capacity.

2. China Accelerating “De-Americanization”

Given the temporary nature of this agreement, China is likely to accelerate export diversification to other countries in preparation for ongoing uncertainty.

Chinese companies are already expanding into Malaysia, and trade with ASEAN nations is expected to grow.

Outlook for US-China Relations: Prolonged Uncertainty

This 90-day tariff reduction is merely a temporary “ceasefire,” and far from a permanent solution.

・Tariffs could return to high levels after 90 days
・Previous agreements (such as China increasing US imports) remain unfulfilled
・Structural issues like subsidies, overproduction, and job outflow are still unresolved

Because of these factors, US-China relations are expected to remain unstable.

Final Thoughts: Time to Focus on Core Business

Stock markets are showing some signs of recovery. While indices like the S&P are trending up, investment should always be viewed long-term.

Personally, I believe focusing on your core business is the best form of risk mitigation.

International logistics and trade operations are heavily influenced by macroeconomic shifts. That’s why reading the market and responding quickly on the ground is crucial.

Summary｜What Logistics and Trade Professionals Can Do Now

・Treat the 90-day tariff relief as a business opportunity and revise procurement strategies
・Explore alternative trading routes with ASEAN and other regions as a hedge against US-China risks
・Strengthen on-site coordination to stay agile in response to information changes

I hope these insights help shape your international strategy moving forward.