How the US-China Tariff Truce Could Disrupt Global Logistics – Rising Freight Rates & Capacity Shortages

■ Overview of the US-China Tariff Truce: 90-Day Temporary Relief

The US and China agreed to ease retaliatory tariffs on selected imported goods.
As a result, US tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced from 115% to 30%, and China’s tariffs on US goods dropped to 10%.


This is a limited 90-day measure and only applies to specific items.

For example, US-made cars, steel, and aluminum are not included in the relief list.

■ Why Shipping Services to North America Won’t Rebound Immediately

Even with the tariff easing, logistics volumes are unlikely to recover quickly.
One of the key reasons is the suspension of North America-bound services by major shipping lines.

For example, alliances like Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance had halted some Asia–North America routes due to Trump-era tariffs.
Resuming these routes requires both time and cost. If demand returns before services are restored, space shortages could lead to a freight rate surge.

■ Cargo Already in a “Waiting to Ship” Situation?

According to industry sources, cargo has been piling up as US retailers waited for tariff relief.

Now that tariffs are lower, shippers are ready to move—but there aren’t enough vessels.
In other words, space is limited, while demand is growing fast.
This structure may drive ocean freight rates even higher in the short term.

■ Latest Spot Rate Update (as of May 9)

Future rate movements will depend on carriers’ capacity recovery and shippers’ booking behavior.

■ Key Points to Watch

• Will logistics bottlenecks return after the 90-day relief ends?
• Can carriers restructure services fast enough?
• How long will the spot rate surge continue?

For both logistics players and cargo owners, these 90 days could be a turning point.