North America-Bound Container Rates Bottoming Out? Insights from SCFI’s First Rise in 5 Weeks

Today, let’s break down the news: “Have container freight rates to North America finally hit bottom?”

We’ll analyze the latest Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) to better understand current conditions and the background behind them.

SCFI Update: North America Rates Rebound

According to SCFI data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on July 11, spot freight rates from China (per 40-foot container) are as follows:

To US West Coast: $2,194 (+5% week-on-week)
To US East Coast: $4,172 (+1% week-on-week)

This is the first increase in five weeks.

In particular, the West Coast rate had plunged from over $6,000 to around $2,000, so this rebound gives the impression that rates may have bottomed out.

What Caused the June Drop?

In June, major and Asian carriers aggressively added capacity to North American routes.

However, export demand from China fell short of expectations, leading to oversupply and a sharp decline in rates.

West Coast: from $6,243 in early June to $2,194 in just a few weeks
East Coast: from $5,172 to $4,172

Source: ITS Logistics, RailwayAge (June 2025 Freight Index)

July Rebound: Result of Capacity Adjustments

From July onward, shipping lines began responding actively.

MSC temporarily suspended its “PEARL” service (China/SE Asia–US West Coast)
Other carriers canceled GRI (General Rate Increases) and PSS (Peak Season Surcharges)

These moves appear to be efforts to rebalance supply and demand, and prevent further rate declines.

Regional SCFI Trends (As of July 11)

While North America saw a modest recovery, other regions remained soft:

Northern Europe (20ft): $2,099 (slight drop)
South America West Coast: down for 5 straight weeks
South America East Coast: turned downward after 10 weeks

As a result, the overall SCFI fell to 1,733 points (-2% week-on-week).

Takeaways for Shippers and Forwarders

If supply control continues over the next few weeks, the market may stabilize.

West Coast: Rate battles expected near cost lines
East Coast: Prices remain high—renegotiating contracts and route diversification are key

GRI/PSS cancellations: Consider this a temporary pause; be prepared for future reactivation

Conclusion

This rebound is likely just a temporary market correction.

If strong demand continues or carrier strategies shift, more volatility may follow.

That’s exactly why supply chain strategy matters most during unstable times.

Keep tracking updates regularly to stay ahead.