Container Shipping Beyond 2026: Turbulent Waters Ahead

The Theme: What Happens After 2026?

J.P. Morgan’s latest report forecasts a massive supply glut in container shipping over the next few years.

Let’s dive into what that means for the industry and shippers.

Oversupply is Coming

Due to a surge in new ship orders during the post-COVID boom, container capacity is expected to increase by up to 30% by 2026.

External factors like Red Sea disruptions or port congestion that masked oversupply are now fading, making the excess capacity clearly visible.

Shippers: Lower Rates, But New Headaches

Lower freight rates are good news, especially for U.S. importers burdened by Trump-era tariffs.

However, carriers will respond with blank sailings and slow steaming, which cause delivery delays and inventory issues.

It’s becoming a “cheaper but more inconvenient” era.

Carrier Strategies: Profit Over Reliability

Most carriers now prioritize profitability over reliability.

Only Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s Gemini Cooperation still promote high schedule reliability (90%+), while others favor network restructuring, scrapping old vessels, or even benefiting from port congestion.

Economic Growth is Slowing

While early 2025 saw a 4.5% rise in volumes due to early shipments, growth is now cooling.

In 2026, demand is expected to grow just 2%, while supply will grow 9%, further widening the gap and pushing rates down.

Final Takeaway