Posted on: November 10, 2025 / Last updated: November 10, 2025
U.S. Retailers Cut Back on Inventory: Tariffs, Consumer Sentiment, and the Logistics Slowdown
As the 2025 holiday season approaches, a curious trend is emerging in U.S. retail.
Sales remain strong, yet imports are falling sharply.
According to the latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), imports are expected to fall 14.4% year-on-year in November and 19.9% in December.
By March 2026, import volumes could drop to 1.79 million TEU.
Behind this slowdown are shifting consumer sentiment, tariff uncertainty, and the aftereffects of early front-loaded imports.
CONTENTS
Strong Sales, Lean Inventory: Risk Control through Minimal Stock
U.S. retail sales exceeded USD 1 trillion in 2025, up 3–4% year-on-year.
However, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell in November.
The decline reflects lingering uncertainty from the five-week government shutdown and ongoing political instability.
As a result, retailers are now embracing a “sell first, restock later” strategy.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the inventory-to-sales ratio stands between 1.28 and 1.32 — barely one month of inventory on hand.
This marks a complete shift away from the old practice of holding three months of stock.
Tariff Risks and the Post-Frontloading Slowdown
Another key factor behind the decline in imports is the frontloading effect.
During early 2025, as the Trump administration frequently altered tariff policies, many importers rushed to bring goods in before potential hikes.
This led to a 3.7% increase in first-half imports.
However, warehouses are now full, and new orders have slowed significantly.
Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates warns:
“Frequent tariff policy changes make the market unpredictable. Import volumes could drop even further in early 2026.”
This volatility is reshaping how U.S. companies manage supply chains and logistics planning.
Limited Impact from U.S.–China Trade Deal: ASEAN Shift Accelerates
The U.S.–China trade agreement announced in late 2025 halved the so-called “Fentanyl Tax” for one year.
However, overall tariffs remain high at around 47%.
As a result, importers are turning to Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia for sourcing.
This shift away from China strengthens the ASEAN supply base, though it also presents mixed effects for logistics.
While container volumes from China have declined, shipments from Southeast Asia are increasing, reshaping global shipping patterns.
Conclusion: A Phase of “Cautious Aggression” in Logistics
In early 2026, North America-bound trade routes may see looser capacity and softer freight rates.
However, renewed tariff or political instability could trigger another wave of frontloading.
Today’s logistics environment is no longer a marathon — it’s a series of short sprints.
Companies must adapt with flexible transport contracts and inventory-linked replenishment systems.
U.S. retail has entered a phase of “cautious offense”.
The key question is how to maximize sales while keeping inventory low — a challenge that will define the future of global trade and logistics.
