【Latest Report】The Rise of Mexico, the Biggest Winner of Tariff Shock, and the Looming Risk of AI Surveillance in the Supply Chain

The Truth About Tariffs Discussed at HIMC 25

I will discuss the tariff shock and its biggest winner, Mexico.

The Houston International Maritime Conference (HIMC 25) in early November 2025 featured a highly engaging discussion on how US tariff policies are reshaping global supply chains.

I will summarize this latest report into three key points: the tariff impact, the rise of Mexico, and the experts’ warning.

1. The Tariff Impact: A Body Blow to Importers

First, the tariff impact.

The NRF Vice President stated a fundamental and harsh truth: “Tariffs are a tax paid by the American importer.”

This is hitting companies like a body blow, with cries from the field that tariff information changes constantly, leaving management reports lagging.

One major furniture manufacturer alone projects over $400 million in additional costs this year in the US market—a level beyond corporate effort.

Southeast Asia is No Longer a “Safe Haven”

While moving factories seems like the answer, experts warn that the previous trend of moving from China to Southeast Asian countries like Thailand or Cambodia is no longer a safe zone, with new tariff risks emerging for Southeast Asian products.

The US government is thus pushing for manufacturing in the North American region using the USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement).

2. The Rise of Mexico: The Ultimate Nearshoring Winner

This brings us to the second point: the rise of Mexico.

All panelists at the conference unanimously pointed out: “The ultimate winner of nearshoring is Mexico.”

In fact, Chinese manufacturers themselves are scrambling to build factories in Mexico to maintain access to the US market.

One expert described the momentum of Mexican industrial growth as “like a weed.”

Investment Surge and Cross-Border Hub Status

In concrete moves, global logistics giant Kuehne+Nagel has significantly expanded its border logistics hub in El Paso, Texas; the previous facility was full within just one year.

Manufacturing investment is also vibrant, such as India’s Mothersun Group investing $50 million in a Mexican plant to strengthen supply for Audi.

With geographical proximity and USMCA benefits, Mexico has become the hub for the cross-border supply chain.

3. The Experts’ Warning: AI Surveillance and Compliance

The final point is a sober warning from experts: this shift to Mexico is no cause for complacency.

US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is evolving, enhancing audits and transaction reviews using AI.

As a result, previously overlooked errors are now flagged by AI. More alarmingly, there’s a movement toward enforcement visibility—publicly naming non-compliant companies.

Experts warn that “it is now critical to ensure your company’s name does not appear in the newspaper.”

Companies relying on overseas suppliers under DDP contracts are especially vulnerable and face severe legal risks if their data is inadequate.

Opportunity and risk are two sides of the same coin; future logistics strategy must balance utilizing Mexico with ironclad compliance.