Posted on: December 10, 2025 / Last updated: December 11, 2025
US Import Volumes to Drop by Double Digits in Early 2026
The US retail import outlook remains weak as double-digit declines are expected from January to April 2026. NRF and Hackett Associates forecast the sharpest drop in March, reaching a 17% year-on-year decline.
The slowdown is driven by two key factors.
- Uncertainty over US tariff policy continues to delay purchasing decisions, with companies fearing additional tariff hikes.
- Excess inventories remain after retailers front-loaded imports in mid-2025 to avoid potential tariff increases.
As a result, cargo flows from Asia are weakening, and freight rates on Trans-Pacific routes continue to decline.
Tariff uncertainty → Weaker demand → Lower volumes → Falling freight rates.
Looking ahead, retailers are focused on clearing inventories, while the future of US trade policy remains unclear. These two elements will heavily shape logistics demand in early 2026.
