Posted on: January 6, 2026 / Last updated: January 6, 2026
Container Shipping Could Enter a Severe Downturn in 2026
According to recent forecasts by Drewry and analysis published by the Journal of Commerce, the global container shipping industry could fall into a combined loss of approximately 10 billion US dollars in 2026.
This would represent a dramatic reversal after several years of historically strong profitability.
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Severe Supply Demand Imbalance Is Emerging
The core issue behind this outlook is a structural imbalance between vessel supply and cargo demand.
While global container volumes are still expected to grow slightly, capacity expansion continues to outpace demand growth, especially on major east west trade lanes.
In simple terms, there are too many ships chasing too little cargo.
Why Profits in 2025 Were Misleading
Even though cargo volumes slowed in late 2025, carriers managed to stay profitable.
This was largely supported by two temporary factors.
- Front loading by US importers ahead of potential tariff changes
- Longer transit times caused by Red Sea diversions via the Cape of Good Hope
Geopolitical disruptions effectively absorbed excess vessel capacity.
North America Becomes the Key Risk Area
According to Moody’s, US retailers remain highly cautious.
Inventory discipline remains tight due to uncertain consumer demand and unpredictable trade policy.
As a result, trans Pacific container volumes in 2026 are forecast to be flat or decline slightly.
Because North America is the most profitable trade lane, even small volume declines can severely impact carrier earnings.
A Return to the Suez Canal May Accelerate the Downturn
If Red Sea tensions ease and vessels return to the Suez Canal route, the initial effect could be short term congestion in European ports.
This may temporarily support freight rates.
However, once congestion clears, previously hidden excess capacity will re enter the market, putting intense downward pressure on freight rates throughout 2026.
